MHLU - Health Status Resource

Population Growth

Population Growth

Key Findings: 

The 2016 population of Middlesex-London (455,526) grew by 3.7%, up from 439,151 people in 2011 according to the Census of the Population. This rate is down from the 12.9% growth rate between 1996 and 2010.1  

Middlesex-London’s growth rate continues to be lower than Ontario’s overall, which was 4.6% from 2011 to 2016 and 19.2% between 1996 and 2010. 1

The projected growth rate in Middlesex-London from 2016 to 2041 is 26.1% compared to 30.3% for all of Ontario (Figure 1.4.1). Population growth will be largely driven by longevity of the population and in-migration rather than birth rate.

The 65 and older age group in Middlesex-London is expected to increase the most of any age group between 2016 and 2041 (90.6%). The number of seniors will almost double in the 25-year time period, from an estimated 78,259 to a projected 149,137 (Figure 1.4.2).

Growth is also predicted in all other age groups from 2016 to 2041 with the zero to 11 year-olds increasing by 16.4%; 12 to 19 years-olds, by 23.2%; 20 to 44 year-olds, by 11.4%; and the 45 to 64 year-olds, by 11.3% (Figure 1.4.2).

Interpretive Notes

Population growth is based on population projections which in turn are based on various assumptions about future births, deaths and, migration.  This indicator uses the Ministry of Finance’s medium-growth or “reference” scenario which is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue in Middlesex-London.2 While there is a great deal of uncertainty in these projections, they help to plan for future population levels and potential service needs.

How this Indicator was Calculated: 
Ontario Public Health Standard: 

Ontario Public Health Standards: Requirements for Programs, Services, and Accountability 

Population Health Assessment and Surveillance Protocol, 2018


References:

  1. Statistics Canada. 2017. Middlesex-London Health Unit, [Health region, December 2017], Ontario and Ontario [Province] (table). Census Profile. 2016 Census. [Internet] Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2016001. Ottawa, ON. [updated 2017 Nov 29; cited 2018 Nov 30]. Available from:
    https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E
  2. Ontario Ministry of Finance. Ontario Population Projects Update, 2017-2041 [Internet]. Toronto, ON: Queens Printer for Ontario; 2018 [updated 2018 June 25; cited 2018 Dec 3]. Available from: https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/#s4a

Last modified on: January 25, 2019

Jargon Explained

Population Growth
The population percentage change between two time periods or the ratio of the difference between the population at the end of the period and the population at the beginning of the period relative to the population at the beginning of the period.